Madagascar security forces overwhelmed; 172 vanishings reported as institutions fail publi

Madagascar’s security apparatus is under acute strain. Over recent weeks, 172 disappearances have been recorded across the country, with numerous victims found deceased, according to reports circulating on social media. The surge in violent crime, particularly targeting children, has produced what observers describe as a climate of psychological terror, concentrated most visibly in the capital, Antananarivo.

The scale of the crisis prompted the presidency to announce, on July 7, the immediate deployment of the presidential guard alongside 400 elements of defense and security forces. Whether that deployment can address what appears to be a systemic institutional breakdown, rather than a temporary spike in criminal activity, is the question now hanging over the response.

Additional reference context is available at https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/le-grand-invit%C3%A9-afrique/20260714-vague-de-disparitions-%C3%A0-madagascar-certaines-institutions-ont-cess%C3%A9-de-fonctionner-dans-l-int%C3%A9r%C3%AAt-g%C3%A9n%C3%A9ral.

Ketakandriana Rafitoson, number two at Transparency International Initiative Madagascar, frames the situation in precisely those terms. In an interview, she argued that citizens have lost confidence in the institutions charged with their protection. When investigations move slowly, perpetrators remain unidentified, and criminal activity grows bolder, fear spreads far beyond individual cases. That dynamic, she said, now defines the security environment in Antananarivo.

The question of who commits these crimes remains largely unanswered. Sporadic arrests have occurred, but public confidence in law enforcement has not recovered. Rafitoson cautioned against assigning blame without evidence, noting that such determinations belong to investigators. She observed, however, that organized criminal activity typically requires networks of complicity and logistical capacity that authorities must identify and dismantle.

Suspicions of high-level involvement complicate the picture further. In Antananarivo, public discourse frequently references complicity at institutional levels in kidnappings and resource trafficking, particularly among elected officials in the southern regions. Rafitoson connected this pattern to what she termed state capture: the process by which small elites or interest groups redirect public institutions, finances, and administration toward private ends rather than the public good.

That capture directly undermines security operations. When institutions operate opaquely, responsibilities remain unclear, and oversight mechanisms weaken, law enforcement cannot effectively combat criminal networks or corruption. Some institutions, Rafitoson stated, have progressively ceased functioning in the general interest and instead become subject to private or particular interests.

The Prime Minister’s recent declaration that “we are at war” reflects the gravity authorities perceive. His statement that no tolerance will be extended to perpetrators signals intent to respond with force. Rafitoson acknowledged the legitimacy of such messaging, noting that citizens expect the state to react with determination to serious crimes. Words carry weight, she said, but the true test lies in sustained action over time, not simply declaring war.

Meanwhile, Rafitoson outlined both immediate and structural demands on transitional authorities. In the short term, mobilizing all available resources to identify perpetrators, protect the population, support victims’ families, and communicate transparently remains essential. The current period of institutional refoundation also presents an opportunity, she argued, to rebuild stronger, more transparent, and more independent institutions oriented toward the common good.

The longer-term challenge involves restoring moral purpose to the state, rebalancing power, and rebuilding democracy from the ground up. This requires investment in human capital and cultivation of a national culture of accountability. Recent declarations of principle suggest some movement in this direction, but Rafitoson was direct: the public expects concrete action from government authorities, not statements alone.

The full interview is available at rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/le-grand-invit%C3%A9-afrique/20260714-vague-de-disparitions-madagascar-certaines-institutions-ont-cess%C3%A9-de-fonctionner-dans-l-int%C3%A9r%C3%Aat-g%C3%A9n%C3%A9ral. Whether the 400 newly deployed security personnel represent the beginning of a sustained operational response or another declaration without follow-through is the question Madagascar’s institutions will have to answer in the weeks ahead.