Madagascar’s climate agenda carries a price tag measured in billions, and President Michaël Randrianirina used his address at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, on 11 November to argue that the financing gap has become a question of national survival. Speaking to world leaders, he framed climate justice as a collective responsibility, but his message was fundamentally an economic one: a country absorbing catastrophic losses wants direct, predictable access to adaptation finance.
The numbers he presented were stark. The 2026 cyclone season cost Madagascar close to 2.5 billion dollars, a figure the head of state cited while stressing that the island remains one of the world’s rare carbon sink countries, an irreplaceable asset for humanity. The damage from cyclone Gezani, which struck in February, illustrated the scale of exposure. The storm destroyed three quarters of the city of Toamasina, left around sixty people dead and affected nearly 600,000 people.
For investors and development finance watchers, the president’s core argument centred on returns that the global economy does not currently capture. Madagascar’s natural forests, mangroves and coral reefs deliver an immense service to the global climate, he said, yet the country sits seventh worldwide on the climate risk index without commensurate funding. “My country wants to be at the heart of climate action and to benefit from the support that makes it possible,” he declared, calling for the nation to effectively draw on the climate fund.
The pipeline of projects he outlined represents a substantial capital requirement. Madagascar’s nationally determined contribution commits to a 34 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. Alongside that sits a plan to reach 85 percent renewable energy by 2030, an undertaking valued at 13.86 billion dollars, plus implementation of the blue policy letter on resilience for ocean and aquatic ecosystems. Each of these, the president made clear, demands significant means to move from paper to execution.
His ask was specific about the structure of the money. “For us, the gap is a question of survival. What Madagascar is calling for is powerful adaptation finance in the form of grants, with direct and certified access, in real time and predictable flows,” he concluded. The formulation signals a preference for grant-based instruments over debt, with streamlined disbursement channels, a position likely to resonate with climate finance negotiators weighing how vulnerable economies can access funds without adding to their fiscal burdens.
The commercial logic underpinning the appeal is hard to ignore. Every cyclone season erodes the asset base of an economy whose natural capital, by the president’s account, benefits the entire planet. The recurring destruction of infrastructure and housing, as seen in Toamasina, represents both a humanitarian toll and a recurring capital loss that private and public insurers, lenders and investors must price in.
The timing of the appeal is not abstract. Madagascar’s cyclone season opened this month and will run until April. According to forecasts from the meteorological service, the number of tropical cyclones expected to hit the country will be reduced, but their intensity will be high. In financial terms, that means fewer events but heavier single-event losses, a pattern that raises the cost of reconstruction and strengthens the case the president took to Antalya.
The full account of the president’s COP31 address, as reported by Anadolu Ajansı, is available here: https://www.aa.com.tr/fr/turkiye/madagascar-le-pr%C3%A9sident-randrianirina-plaide-pour-une-justice-climatique-%C3%A0-la-cop31/4121369
Whether the 13.86 billion dollar energy transition and the 2035 emissions commitment attract the grant-based financing Madagascar seeks will now depend on the response from donors and climate funds, and on how the COP31 negotiations translate pledges into predictable capital flows.